Exploring take points

Author

Lasse Hjorth Madsen

Published

July 23, 2024

Why this?

What is the lowest take point you can possibly have, with reasonable gammon frequencies? Not surprisingly, this happens when you’re trailing 17-away, 17-away, the opponent holds a 16-cube and double to 32. If you pass, you have about 1 percentage chance of winning, so if you got that many winning chances, you can take.

But what about all the other take points; which ones are the most extreme?

A big plot

These are some assumed outcome probabilities, similar to the opening position:

Regular Gammon Backgammon Sum
Player wins 37 12.5 0.5 50
Opponent wins 37 12.5 0.5 50
Sum 74 25.0 1.0 100

Using those gammon and backgammon frequencies, here’s a take point plot, for all possible scores and cube-values in a 17-point match. It’s fun to explore and learn. Can you find that one purple 16-cube mentioned in the beginning?